The State Budget Dominates the Props

by Robert in Monterey [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

As Brian noted below, the propositions are pretty much a done deal. 92 lost (though by a much closer margin than earlier in the night, suggesting Obama supporters went for 92), as did 93. The Indian gaming compacts all won by healthy margins.

The common factor that explains all six outcomes is the state budget deficit. It now looms over state politics like nothing else. Sure, there were reasons specific to each measure that influenced the outcome, but looked at as a whole, voters appear to have seen these ballot measures through the lens of the state's dire fiscal situation.

Prop 92, which was seen by some as squeezing the budget to help community colleges, failed. Props 94-97, which the barrage of ads claimed (questionably) would raise $4 billion for the state, passed. And Prop 93, which would have reformed term limits and given current legislators more time in office, failed - voters seem to have held them responsible for the budget crisis.

The lesson here is that it is long past time for state legislators to help craft a permanent budget solution. A 30-year succession of one-time and short-term fixes haven't gotten us any closer to a stable budget, or to fixing the structural revenue shortage. As a result, community colleges are now facing budget cuts without any protections, four of the state's largest casinos now can operate without strong unionization rules, and 120 legislators are looking at an early end to their terms in office.

Add to that toll the N??ez-Schwarzenegger health care plan (which I opposed, but was still primarily a victim of the budget crisis) and the possibility of future programs getting axed, like the high speed rail bonds on the November ballot, and it should now be clear that the state budget crisis isn't just a fiscal problem but a major political obstacle.

Term limit reform will be back. We likely haven't seen the last battle over Indian gaming and labor rights. Public education at all levels is still hurting and growing less accessible. The health care crisis continues, and we badly need 21st century, sustainable transportation solutions. But until the state budget crisis gets a permanent solution, it's going to be very difficult to move forward on any of that.

That is where our focus must now turn.