by David Dayen [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By David Dayen
d-day

Welcome back to the long-awaited California House races roundup! These things take up an inordinate amount of time, but I've finally found some, and I'm ready to go with this roundup. There's a lot of additional information, including Q4 2007 fundraising numbers, the turnout in the February primary offering a decent snapshot of Democratic chances in a particular district, and quite a few new candidates to speak about. I'm going to rank the top ten challenges to Republican-held seats across the state, as well as take a look at the two intriguing races held by Democrats.

But first, it should be mentioned that the deadline for applying to run for a Congressional seat is fast approaching (March 7, extended to March 12 if the incumbent is not running), and 4 of the 19 Republican-held seats in the state still have no challenger: CA-02 (Herger), CA-19 (Radanovich), CA-22 (McCarthy), and CA-25 (McKeon). This is especially distressing in CA-19 and CA-25, where turnout in the Feb. 5 primary was either even or favored Democrats. So anyone in these 4 districts: run for Congress! It's a résumé builder!

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

There's good news and bad news ahead for Congressional Democrats: immigration will cause a major power shift of as many as 30-odd Congressional seats by the 2030 Census. The good news: most of those voters are likely to be Democrats. The bad news: many of the shifts will be to Red States, giving Republicans a 68-vote advantage in the Electoral College compared to a 34-vote advanage in 2004.
 
That's according to a fascinating article in Monday's Wall Street Journal [behind a subscription wall], that examines data from the Brookings Institution and the Population Reference Bureau, two respected Washington think tanks. The article suggests that after the 2030 Census, California will add two Congressional seats, Florida will add seven,Texas eight, and Arizona five seats. Other states -- largely in the West and southern Atlantic seaboard -- will pick up between 1 and 2 seats, largely due to an infux of immigrants.