by paulhogarth [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Randy Shaw wrote this for today's Beyond Chron.

In late February, a David Binder poll found State Senator Carole Migden badly trailing Mark Leno and Joe Nation in the race for Senate District 3. Since that time, Migden agreed to pay $350,000 in fines for state campaign law violations, filed a federal lawsuit against the FPPC challenging campaign finance limits as unconstitutional, and was sued by the FPPC for $9 million in an action that charged, among other violations, that Migden "failed to report a number of large transactions entirely, while reporting other large transactions which simply never occurred." In political trouble before the FPPC's actions, Migden now has no chance to win re-election. She appears to be remaining in the race solely to defeat Leno, a strategy that would put a moderate Democrat from Marin in a seat that would otherwise be held by a San Francisco progressive.

by Brian Leubitz [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

In a rather unsurprising move, Joe A. Veronese dropped out of the primary race for Senate District 3.  Joe Alioto Veronese was lagging behind  Asm. Mark Leno, former Asm. Joe Nation, and incumbent Carole Midgen.  With Nation's entry into the race, it gave the SF police commissioner a tough time trying to argue that he was the candidate for Marin. Nevertheless, we'll be seeing Joe Alioto Veronese again, of that I can assure you.

In terms of the SD-03 race, well, I have to imagine that this favors Mark Leno.  In Leno's recent David Binder poll, JAV was pulling about 7%. Given the  demographics, Leno will be in the best position to pick up those votes. Specifically, Leno is stronger in the Marina and North Beach neighborhoods where JAV was strong than Senator Migden has been in the past. This might even help him become the front-runner. I'm not sure the endorsement would make a huge difference, but it might help Nation to grab a few SF votes if he gets the JAV nod.

Press release over the flip.

by paulhogarth [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

My boss, Randy Shaw, wrote the following for today's BeyondChron.

A poll taken last week by David Binder found State Senate District 3 a two-way contest between challengers Joe Nation and Mark Leno, with incumbent Carole Migden trailing badly. Binder, who is San Francisco's leading pollster and has been busy surveying for Barack Obama, found that Nation led Leno 27-24% on the initial ask, with Migden trailing at 17%. When pro and con statements about the candidates were read, the Leno-Nation numbers reversed, with Migden remaining at 17%. Joe Alioto Veronese was at 7 and 10%, and nearly a quarter of the electorate remains undecided. The poll spells deep trouble for Migden, who is having fundraising problems and still faces possible legal action by the Fair Political Practices Commission for alleged campaign financing violations. The poll raises the question whether Migden should pull out of the race in order for the seat to remain in the hands of a San Francisco progressive from the queer community - an analysis recently advanced by one of the incumbent's most prominent supporters.

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Randy Shaw

A poll taken last week by David Binder found State Senate District 3 a two-way contest between challengers Joe Nation and Mark Leno, with incumbent Carole Migden trailing badly. Binder, San Francisco’s leading pollster who has been busy in recent months surveying for Barack Obama, found that Nation led Leno 27-24% on the initial ask, with Migden trailing at 17%. When pro and con statements about the candidates were read, the Leno-Nation numbers reversed, with Migden remaining at 17%. Joe Alioto Veronese was at 7 and 10%, and nearly a quarter of the electorate remains undecided. The poll spells deep trouble for Migden, who is having fundraising problems and still awaits possible legal action by the Fair Political Practices Commission into alleged campaign financing violations. The poll raises the question whether Migden should pull out of the race in order for the seat to remain in the hands of a San Francisco progressive from the queer community – an analysis recently advanced by one of the incumbent’s most prominent supporters.

by Brian Leubitz [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]