[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

While I have many close friends who support Clinton and who support Obama, I have not been involved with either campaign. As a professional Democrat, I’ve watched the contest between the two of them evolve – often unexpectedly – for months.

I now believe Obama will win our nomination. His lead among delegates was built by his activist-based victories in states that allocate delegates by caucus. You win such states by having the money to compete on the ground (which has been internet based for Obama) and by generating excitement among the faithful. For all her strong points, Clinton has been unable to generate activist excitement. And because her fundraising was centered around contributors to her husband (‘investors’) she was able to raise a lot of money but not a lot when compared to Obama.