margin of error

No Surprise Here

by DFA Staff [courtesy of Blog for America]

Reuters reports on a recent poll of Arab feelings towards the United States:

Eight out of 10 Arabs have an unfavorable view of the United States and only six percent believe the U.S. troop build-up in Iraq in the last year has worked, said a poll of six Arab countries released on Monday.

...

The survey canvassed the opinions of about 4,000 people over the past month in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates. It has a margin of error of about 1.6 percent.

It looks like the Bush administration's plan to bomb and/or demonize a whole section of the planet into submission hasn't worked so well.

Danny
Communications Director

A dead heat in California?

by Brian Leubitz [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

The Field Poll on the presidential race is expected out like...um a few minutes.  I'm hearing right now that the race is now within the margin of error.  If this is true, which at this point I am not able to confirm, this would be a tremendous showing of momentum for the Illinois Senator.  Senator Clinton has dominated the polling in the state since well, forever.

Apparently, this was on the KTVU news at 10 here in San Francisco. I don't know if that means they violated the embargo or what not, but if you saw KTVU news at 10 just now, help us out here.  The numbers I heard from a friend who saw it on Ch. 2 here in SF said that it was running at Clinton 36, Obama 34, Undecided 18.

At any rate, hard data will be all over the California media within a couple of hours, and likely posted at Field's archives shortly.

PPIC Poll Finds California Voters Evenly Divided on Prop 93—Term Limits Reform—42 to 42%

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

frankrusso-small.jpg By Frank D. Russo

The Public Policy Institute of California has released a poll taken between January 13 and 20 that shows voters evenly divided on Proposition 93, the term limits change measure. PPIC found support at 42%, opposition at 42% and 16% of likely voters undecided.

The survey contains 1,099 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3%. Its findings mirror that of a California Field Poll released yesterday that showed the measure tied at 39% in favor and opposed.

Once again, the trend line is not favorable on Prop 93. Support has dropped from a high of 55% in September to 42%. But opposition has been in a narrow range between 38% and 42% in surveys going back to May of last year.

A partisan divide is showing up on this ballot proposition with Democrats in support by 47% to 36%, Republicans opposed by 45% to 39%, and independents about evenly divided—44% yes and 43% no—within the margin of error of the poll.

56% of California voters say the current term limits in effect are the “right amount.” Amongst those who disagree, there is a slight edge for those who say the status quo gives “too little” time (21%) and those who say that it gives “too much” (17%).

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Polling Memo Shows Clinton Ahead, But Race is Fluid in California Democratic Horserace for President

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

Julia-Rosen.gif

From Julia Rosen
Working Californians

To: Working Californians

From: The Mellman Group, Inc.

Re: California Democratic Primary Survey

Date: April 25, 2006
This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of 400 likely 2008 Democratic primary voters, interviewed by telephone April 9-12, 2006. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9%. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.

SUMMARY

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