margin of victory

Supreme Court Throws A Curve To Political Parties – OK’s Modification Of Washington’s “Blanket Primary”

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

towashington 089.gif By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

The U.S. Supreme Court opened a door to change yesterday – or opened a can of worms. In a decision upholding the State of Washington’s modified “blanket” primary, it dramatically reduced the ability of the major parties to control their own nomination process.

The Washington system advances the two top vote-getters from the primary election to a run-off in the general. While participation in the primary is “closed” – only democratic registrants may vote in the ‘democratic’ side of the primary – in the runoff all voters can participate (as today) with the difference being the top two vote-getters could easily be from the same party in areas dominated by that party.

If the Democrats could keep any Democratic candidate from filing in the primary, then Democratic voters could be the margin of victory between two Republicans in November. Presumably this would force GOP candidates toward the “center” in an effort to appeal to the more liberal Democratic voters.

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California Latino Super Delegate Remains Uncommitted

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

Steven-Ybarra.jpg By Steven J. Ybarra, JD

A few weeks ago, when Patty Solis Doyle was dumped to make way for the new effort to save the dying Hillary campaign, I said that to do that was dumb. At that time, it was clear to me and many folks that the Clinton campaign was losing its grip. Texas was supposed to be in the Clinton column and suddenly it came into play. On Tuesday March 4, 2008, the campaign magically revived itself with a slim margin of victory. Not quite the thirty points we had all been promised but hey, it was on the plus side.

I have always said that early voting does nothing for turnout. Early voters are those with time on their hands. Moreover, it appears that while I was right about Texas being within the margin of error (that means 4 points either direction) I remain right about early voting. In the early voting numbers, Obama led in Houston two to one. Nevertheless, by the time the paper storm had cleared. Obama’s lead went from two to one, to 56.15%. He ended with very few votes on Election Day as compared to the early vote. He closed the day with 227,886 votes to Clinton’s 176,724 votes.

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Obama, Donna Edwards, and Coattails for Peace

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

Sara-Nichols.gif By Sara S. Nichols

People need to start recognizing that Obama is the best nominee, not just because he is more likely to beat McCain in November, but because he is more likely to beat him big, bring new voters into the process, thereby positively affecting the downticket races.

Donna Edwards is the first exciting case in point. Yesterday, Democrat Donna Edwards (who happens to be a former Congress Watch colleague of mine) pulled off a stunning upset against 6 term incumbent congressman Al Wynn (D-Maryland) in Maryland's fourth congressional district (a hybrid of Montgomery and Prince Georges Counties in suburban DC).

The margin of victory? 20%! Completely unheard of for a primary challenge against an incumbent not currently under indictment. Hmmm...Who else won his Maryland Democratic primary by 20% on Tuesday?

Three guesses and the first two wear bold colored pantsuits.

This is no joke. Maryland's appear to be the first congressional primaries of the year (February is very early). Donna is part of a slate of Democratic challengers across the country running against Democrats who supported the war and continued military buildup. And she won, not a little bit, but huge, with the exact same margin of victory as Obama.

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Clinton Wins California Presidential Primary—According to Projections

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

frankrusso-small.jpg By Frank D. Russo

CNN and others have projected Hillary Clinton to have won the California Democratic primary. It is going to be a while before the margin of victory is known, especially considering ballots that will not be counted until tomorrow. Even more difficult is to determine the breakdown of delegates between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. One thing is for certain, the race will continue on to other primaries and caucuses.

The actual vote totals available on the California Secretary of State’s site as of 9:30 p.m. are not at all representative of the state and are skewed towards the smaller counties. With 15% of the California vote in, for instance, there are no votes at all from San Francisco and from Alameda County. Los Angeles has only 8% of precincts reporting, and it is virtually impossible to tell how many of the votes shown are from vote by mail ballots versus precinct day of election ballots.

It is going to be a long night. As soon as results are known on ballot propositions, we will report results.

Nationally and in California this has been a great night for Democrats. Voting of Democrats and those voting in the Democratic primary in this state have set records and brought out young voters in particular.

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