by David Dayen [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The Public Policy Institute of California has released a poll today that shows Hillary Clinton has a lead of 43% to 28% in the Democratic primary in California amongst expected voters. The poll is generally in alignment with the California Field Poll released earlier in the week that had Clinton at a 39% to 27% advantage. Nevertheless, when asked about the volatility of the electorate in races in other states and the possible effect of the South Carolina primary, PPIC President Mark Baldassare told me, “It just isn’t settled on the Democratic or Republican said.” He indicted other primary state results have a big impact on California voters and “We’re getting our news from other states.”

John McCain leads with 29% on the Republican side, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, with Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson (who has dropped out) at 10% apiece. McCain’s trajectory is up, Guiliani’s has been consistently down since June of 2007 when he had 31% support, and Romney’s support has remained within a narrow 2 point range.

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

The PPIC's newly released study on California's decline-to-state voters was released today, and it reveals an electorate increasingly less reliant on political parties. Explains the PPIC:

"The report, California's Post-Partisan Future, shows that as the partisan divide has deepened, the trend toward independent, or decline-to-state, voter registration has grown. Since October 2000, the number of independents in California has increased from 2.3 million to 3 million, while the combined number of Democratic and Republican voters has shrunk from 12.6 million to 11.8 million. If current registration trends continue, there will be more independents than either Republicans or Democrats by 2025."

read more »

by Julia Rosen [courtesy of Working Californians blogs]

The governor continues to maintain his high approval ratings according to a new LAT poll. While the voters do not approve of his approach to the budget crisis, they are blaming the legislature rather than the governor for it. They still view him as the outsider shaking things up, when he has been anything but when it comes to this budget. In general, voters have a gloomy outlook on the state.

Interestingly, there are some strong parallels to what is going on now and what happened in early 2005.

Mark Baldassare, president of the Public Policy Institute of California, notes that voters remained pleased with Schwarzenegger in the weeks after he unveiled those plans -- much as they do today, following the release of his tough budget blueprint. In 2005 it was months later, after the details sank in and opponents had organized their campaign against the governor, that Schwarzenegger's approval rating sank to 37%.

"We're following the same pattern that we did in January of 2005," Baldassare said. "When he rolled out his plans, they were surprising to a lot of people and not what they wanted, but they didn't initially take it out on him. As he started getting attacked by teachers and interest groups, his numbers fell."

read more »