by David Dayen [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

And Monterey and Santa Clara Counties have yet to report at all.  There's a half-decent chance he's going to make it.  And that would be just an incredible story.  A guy gets his ballot, sees no Democrat on it, decides to do something about it, and makes it on the ballot as a write-in?  To quote Joe Biden, "That's a storybook, man."

...as long as we're doing Central Valley Senate races, I should mention that the Denham recall failed.  And Denham was all gloat-y about it.  Congratulations, you beat an unfunded recall.  What a big man you are.

by Robert in Monterey [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Calitics has deleted several posts by BlueBeaumontBoyz that made allegations against Manuel Perez that could not be confirmed or substantiated. It is Calitics policy to remove diaries that make these kind of unproven criminal charges about a candidate.

by Robert in Monterey [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

The AP has gotten a hold of the governor's May Revise speech and therefore the major budget proposals that are to be unveiled tomorrow. The key elements are described below and over the flip I provide my immediate analysis.

• Arnold will float bonds using the state lottery as security. $15 billion over 3 years will be raised but $10 billion goes into "rainy day fund"
• If that fails, 1% sales tax hike to last no more than 3 years
• Prop 98 suspension abandoned; instead COLA will not be paid
• State parks closures abandoned; instead fees to rise $1 to $2
• $6 billion still left to cut or balance out somehow."

Analysis below...

by Bob Brigham [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

David Dayen and Robert in Monterey are coming to San Francisco this weekend due to our securing the best venue in California to watch returns and dish on California politics.

Portals, 3 PM

179 W Portal Ave

One and a half blocks from the West Portal Muni Station

by Robert in Monterey [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

I'm on my way over to Salinas for the "First Presidential Primary in the Nation" (a local straw poll event), but I thought I'd share with you an op-ed I have in today's LA Times: "Why won't The Times talk tax hikes?"

Obviously you'll have to go to the link to read the whole thing, but the basic point is that the Times has, in its recent reporting, been framing the budget crisis as a problem on the spending side, while not being sufficiently attentive to structural revenue deficiencies. If we're really going to fix the state budget without using this crisis as an occasion to further gut badly needed public services, we need to understand the entirety of the problem, not just one dimension of it.

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

Here's an interesting cross-post from Calitics about a weekend article in the LA Times that shows how the press typically covers California's budget inequities:

California's Shock Doctrine: How the Media Spins Arnold's Budget Crisis
by Robert in Monterey, Calitics

The projected deficit for the state budget in 2008 is $10 billion and growing quickly. As the scope of the crisis becomes clearer, the state's media is beginning to take notice and, as always, trying to spin the situation according to their own preconceived notions.
 
In that vein comes today's article by Evan Halper in the LA Times. While the article would seem to boost us by laying the blame at Arnold's feet, its primary argument is actually that the budget crisis is due to "voter-imposed budget constraints" that limit the legislature's ability to slash spending when needed, and limiting the effectiveness of government.

It's not a new claim, of course, and the article quotes Don Perata's complaint about this that he made earlier in the year. But the politics of the budget crisis are shaped by the media coverage of it, and in that sense it's not just significant how much the LA Times is playing up the locked-in spending, but how much they're downplaying the lack of tax revenue.

by Robert in Monterey [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Back in October the special session on water seemed dead. Republicans rejected Perata's water bond plan, which had no funding for dams in it and instead emphasized fixing the Delta and conservation projects. At the time the GOP's attitude was "it's our turn" - give us dams, dammit!

But just as the health care session, which also seemed to be dead, was revived when Democrats caved in to Republican demands for an individual mandate, the water session may be revived by the same means as well, as Perata has tentatively agreed to $3 billion in funding for new dams that Republicans have demanded. From the Visalia Times-Delta article:

No details of the meeting were immediately available. But going into the meeting, Senate leader Don Perata, D-Oakland, tentatively had agreed for the first time to set aside funds, perhaps $3 billion, for work on three reservoirs if there was benefit for the ailing San Joaquin-Sacramento Delta, according to the senator's office. But Perata has insisted on an annual legislative review of funding for the work, something that Republican lawmakers oppose because it could give legislative critics an opportunity to stall a project. GOP advocates of the dams want all the funding to be available once it is approved without further legislative oversight.