[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

Under the collective denial mentality that has hijacked media-types and political observers since the February 5th contests, Senator Barack Obama's decisive 56-42 win in North Carolina juxtaposed with Senator Hillary Clinton's narrow 51-49 win in Indiana shows Senator Obama has successfully rebounded from the Rev. Wright controversy and whatever other manufactured non-policy outrages that he's been forced to address. After all, Obama increased his popular vote lead by about 250,000 votes, and more importantly, his 95 new pledged delegates put him 12 delegates further ahead of Clinton. To borrow a catchphrase from former Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman, Obama's got O-mentum. However, while O-mentum may play a role on the margins, the reality is this contest is already over, and these outcomes were largely predetermined.

by Stephen Crockett [courtesy of Blog for America]

Democratic Talk Radio will be on the air in the Lehigh Valley starting April 3, 2008 at 8:05 am on WGPA, 1100AM. The program will be streaming live on the Internet at http://www.wgpasunny1100.com/welcomepg.html. All programs will be archived on the Democratic Talk Radio website at http://66.39.111.188/arc.html  for anytime streaming or downloading for Podcasting.

The program will feature book authors, talk show hosts, journalists, labor leaders, officeholders, candidates, policy experts, political activists and more, as guests. The program will be co-hosted by Stephen Crockett (from Maryland and Tennessee) and Dana Garrett (from Delaware.) Both are experienced political observers and talk show hosts.

Stephen Crockett writes the Democratic Voices opinion column which is widely available on the Internet. He is a member of the National Writers Union (UAW local 1981) and is active with the UAW Community Action Program. Professionally, Stephen Crockett has an extensive background in marketing, advertising and public relations. Crockett owns College Marketing.com http://www.CollegeMarketing.com .

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

If anybody knows about Arnold Schwarzenegger and initiatives, it's Joe Mathews. Joe is ex of the LA Times, and wrote "The People's Machine," the definitive chronicle of Schwarzenegger's first years as playing the role of Governor. Joe has a new blog, "Blockbuster Democracy" that should be a must-read for all Arnold watchers and Golden State political junkies. (That name, Joe once told me, is what he wanted to title his book but publishers had a better idea. Or not.)
 
Anyway, the blog is out of the box with its first prediction: that the latest Schwarzenegger redistricting initiative, being financed by right-wing Republican groups and fronted by good government types, is destined to die a quick death if it qualifies. (Btw, it's up to $1.50 per signature now on the streets. So much for the goodie-gov groups being able to use their forces to get it on the ballot). Here's what Mathews says:
 
"Look for apathy (recession and budget revenues will outweigh redistricting in voters' minds) and partisan objections to sink this measure too. It's become almost an iron law of California politics: reapportionment measures fail."
 
No matter how much lipstick Common Cause tries to smear on this pig, the poorly-crafted initiative already has political observers describing it as roadkill. And that's a good thing.

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll released today shows the Democratic race within the margin of error of the poll with Hillary Clinton at 36% of likely voters and Barack Obama at 34% with 18% undecided and another 12% voting for other candidates. It documents what Field calls a “strong surge” for Obama since its last poll taken in mid January, just 9 to 12 days earlier. It has a margin of error of 4.5% and was taken between Friday January 25 and Friday February 1.

While many will have their hunches reading the tea leaves here as to who will win the California primary, this one is simply too close to call, and the race will be determined by those who actually turn out and vote. It is not just the margin of error of the poll here of static statistics, but a volatile and unpredictable electorate and the closeness of division in those who have already made up their minds. For those who have surmised that Obama may have a steep road to go up because of early vote by mail voters, consider this: Amongst all mail ballot voters who have or are expected to vote, the results are 32% Obama and 31% Clinton—hardly decisive at all.

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

So imagine for a minute that you're Steve Poizner, the politically ambitious bizillionaire Insurance Commissioner. You've spent something like a hundred million dollars running for Assembly, Insurance Commissioner, and on redistricting and term limit initiatives, trying to buy stepping stones toward the Governorship. You're largely regarded as a political lightweight, but your billfold does the talking and GOP political consultants still talk about how you're easily duped into writing checks. You haven't accomplished a single major thing in the year you've been in office, had at least one so-called consumer group slap your wrists for a scandal inside your department,  and your effort in the wake of the San Diego fires is considered mildly competent at best (unlike the widely acclaimed performance of the Governor). You've bankrolled the anti-93 effort, burning bridges with every GOP legislator for life. Even with that effort, conservatives still think you're Arnold Lite. What's worse, the press thinks you're dull as nails, and political observers credit you for being book smart, having never held any type of political office, they say you just don't "get it."

So imagine waking up the to the LA Times on Friday reading that eBay CEO Meg Whitman is flirting about running for Governor. 

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

• But Race for Senate in 2010 Against Boxer Would Be Too Close to Call
• Californians Wouldn't Support Him for President
• Legislature Rebounds to Split Opinion with Voters

By Frank D. Russo

The Field Poll released the latest findings today that will have some heads scratching but is generally consistent with what a number of political observers have been saying. Take a look at it and the surveys released recently in their poll archive and an interesting pattern emerges.

Schwarzenegger Ratings

Arnold Schwarzenegger is popular with the registered voters in California. He has a 56% approval rating on his performance of Governor with 32% disapproval. This is statistically the same level as his prior rating in August and perhaps a little lower than his 60% in March. It is across the board with Republicans approving by 63% to 27%, those not affiliated with either major party (non-partisan/others) by 56% to 30%, and even registered Democrats approving his performance by 56% to 30%. 12% have no opinion.

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

The ethically challenged John Doolittle, Congressman from a conservative mountain district in Northern California, is losing control of his political machine as GOP colleagues fear he cannot hold his seat against Democrat CharlieBrown, the Sacramento Bee reports. Roseville Assemblymember Ted Gaines,a former Doolittle protegee, is one of the Republicans smelling blood,but so far he has refused to enter the primary.

While some have labeled Governor Schwarzenegger as "Gray Davis with biceps" due to similarly moderate views of both governors, Arnold hassolidified himself as an economic libertarian and environmentalprogressive who leans to the center on social issues, writes DanielWeintraub in today's Bee. He's clearly still in the pocket of theChamber of Commerce, as indicated by his veto of every so-called "jobkiller" bill, but he also signed 18 of 24 bills pushed by the SierraClub.