by Brian Leubitz [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll has just released its survey taken of likely voters in the June 3, 2008 election showing that three-quarters of these voters have head of the ballot propositions and that Proposition 98 is failing by 10 points, 43% to 33%, while rival measure Proposition 99 is favored by 48% to 30%.

These findings are in accord with the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) survey of voters released last week which showed Prop 98 failing by an even wider margin, 30% to 48% and Prop 99 holding a slim 8 point lead, 44% to 36%.

Why Proposition 98—Heavily Bankrolled by Landlords and Opposed in Over 64 Newspaper Editorials—is Losing Badly

by Brian Leubitz [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

According to a new PPIC poll out today, Californians favor the balanced approach by California Democrats over Governor Schwarzenegger's risky lottery scheme or the GOP's cuts-only approach.

"As residents’ perception of the problem has grown, their faith in the governor to make tough budget choices has declined from 24 percent in January to 17 percent today," notes the survey. "Californians put more trust in legislators to make these choices, with 37 percent preferring the Democrats’ approach and 20 percent preferring the Republicans’ approach. But it’s clear that Californians’ trust is in the legislators of their own parties, rather than in the legislature as a whole. A strong majority of Democrats (63%) want Democratic lawmakers to handle the budget, while nearly half of Republicans (46%) prefer GOP lawmakers’ approach, and one in four (25%) favor the governor’s."

Other highlights:

by David Dayen [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

The latest PPIC poll, a pretty decent one in California, has Barack Obama leading John McCain by 17 points, 54-37.  It's a large sample size including 2003 Californians and 1086 likely voters, so it's a fairly robust poll amongst age groups and ethnicities.  And if this data point is correct, Barack Obama looks VERY strong for November.

According to the poll, Obama leads McCain among Hispanics 69-20.

That's a "game over" type of number if it holds.

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

Clinton Also Prevails But By Slightly Lower Margin

By Frank D. Russo

The well respected Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has released a poll within the last hour showing Barack Obama winning the November election in California by 17 points and getting the largest prize of Electoral College votes of any state—53 of the 270 needed to win the presidency. Hillary Clinton also wins—by 12 points over McCain.

Obama leads in all subgroups except that of Republicans. He wins the white vote, does better with the Golden State’s women voters than men, and cleans up with independents and Latinos. He has higher favorable ratings (59% to 36%) than Clinton (46% favorable to 51% unfavorable) overall and his favorable ratings continue strongly with both Democrats and Independents.

The big loser here—John MCain—who has a 53% to 42% unfavorable rating with all likely voters and does poorly with Independents and Latinos.

This is a poll of a very large sample of Californians—2003 adults—with 1086 likely voters and a margin of error with likely voters of 3%. It was taken between May 12 and 18. The full poll is not yet available online to the public but the embargo was lifted as of 10 p.m. A link will be provided as soon as that is available.

Here are the details.

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) asked California likely voters for their opinions on the two statewide ballot propositions on the June election ballot, and the results show Prop 98, which would abolish renter protections is already losing while a rival measure to reform eminent domain, Prop 99, is ahead with the voters.

In their 33 page survey just released, the PPIC found Prop 98 losing amongst all voters 37% to 41% with 22% expressing no opinion, when asked the following question:

“Proposition 98 is called ‘Eminent Domain Limits on Government Authority Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ It bars state and local governments from taking or damaging private property for private uses. It prohibits rent control and similar measures, eliminates deference to government in property rights cases, and changes condemnation rules. Fiscal impact includes increased costs to many governments due to the measure’s restrictions. The net statewide fiscal effect, however, probably would not be significant. If the June primary election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 98?”