[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By David Dayen
d-day

Obama actually had an excellent overnight. He kept contact in several districts, won enough in CA-09 for a 4-2 split, and I don't think CA-50 and CA-53 are worth calling yet until we see where the final votes are coming from; he's basically in the same position he was in CA-01. My approximations on delegates show that Clinton will win between 31 and 37 more delegates out of California. At one point last night it looked like 50-60.

(Those are slightly different than Caligirl's numbers, based on late-breaking numbers for Obama.)

My initial analysis wasn't all that off except for one key area: Clinton was able to get 3-1 splits in 8 key districts, almost all of them heavily Latino: CA-18, CA-21, CA-31 (hey, great job, Obama surrogate Xavier Becerra!), CA-32, CA-34, CA-38, CA-39 (awesome, Obama surrogate Linda Sanchez!), and CA-43. If Obama got enough votes in those districts to keep it close, and I mean a scant 35%, he would have basically been even or down by 5-7 delegates.

by David Dayen [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

by F. Gluck [courtesy of Blog for America]

With the CA SoS decertifying DRE Touchscreens & now finding vulnerability with the InkaVote Plus Precinct Ballot Recorder, and a new study by studycaliforniaballots.org which has found that the old MicroTallySystem central tabulator to be unacceptably inaccurate, it is time to retrieve elections from the corporations and from computer technology and return them to the citizens gy reinstituting old fashioned Hand Counted Paper Ballots at the Precinct Level!

by William Monroe [courtesy of Blog for America]

Michael Bersin at "Show Me Progress" describes in some detail the process for becoming a Delegate to the 2008 Democratic Convention in Denver. Many of us here in Mid Missouri had similar experiences as Michael in the last election cycle...caucusing (This is after the Primary...stay tuned!) at the precinct level, meeting at the County level and then the District and State conventions.

I and many Dean supporters in mid Missouri became Edwards delegates to the State Convention and one of our group went on to Boston. These gatherings and elections in the Delegate process are in my opinion, very rewarding. Show up...and the Party belongs to you.

Here is a link to Michael's article:

I know everyone is now highly involved in the presidential Primary. Next up, while working to elect our State and local candidates...is this parallel activity of Delegate selection, platform formation and participation in the State and National Democratic Party.

Lets go for it!

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By David Latterman
Principal
Fault Line Analytics

The California Political Precinct Index (CPPI) is an ongoing project by Fall Line Analytics to better characterize detailed political voting trends in California. The CPPI is a precinct-level index which ranks each California precinct on a 0-10 0 political scale, with 0 representing the most ‘conservative’ precincts and 100 representing the most ‘liberal’ precincts’.

Taking the methodology from the well-known and highly-accurate San Francisco Progressive Voter Index, the CPPI is created by performing a factor analysis on the results of several ballot measures for every California precinct. These measures can be interpreted on a left-right ideological scale, which when taken together, reveal inherent voting patterns of the precinct. Because the precinct change in most California counties from year to year, for the CPPI only issues from 2004 were used in this initial index.