[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has released a massive survey today that shows just how important the internet has become to most Californians’ lives and has major implications as to how Californians are getting their information about their communities, news in general and political news, variable access to the internet by different demographic groups, and that there is strong support for local government provided broadband access.

The PPIC survey is based on the opinions of 2,253 California adults—a very large sample with a margin of error of just 2%--and runs to 40 pages. Much of what it contains confirms trends and changes that have been chronicled before—the young, the wealthier, and the urban tend to use the internet more—but there are lots of surprises and a lot of data that folks will be analyzing and talking about for some time.

Bear in mind in interpreting this data that it is of California adults—not registered voters, likely voters, or even those who are citizens. The PPIC painstakingly interviewed many Californians in their own language and has sought a large representative sample of those residing within our borders.

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

• Californians Feel State Headed in Wrong Direction by 68% to 23%
• Legislature as a Whole Disapproved by Large Margin

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll has released results from their latest survey that show Arnold Schwarzenegger taking a precipitous tumble in his approval ratings from California registered voters. Schwarzenegger had approval ratings of 60% to 41% just six months ago. Today’s figures show that only 31% now approve of his performance as governor while 48% disapprove of it. This represents a swing from a positive net 19% to a negative net rating of 17%--a swing of 37 points within this short time period.

The state legislature as a whole has an approval rating of 30% to 57% disapproval, which is at a level it has generally be in for at least the last four years.

First the numbers from Field. Then an analysis of what they mean and how they square with other polling including the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC).

Schwarzenegger

by Robert in Monterey [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll has released late last night their latest survey showing that there has been a 21 point swing towards Obama since the February 5 primary and away from Hillary Clinton. Field shows Both Democratic candidates with a 17% advantage over John McCain in California. Obama has the highest favorable ratings by far of any candidate, especially with the state’s important non-partisan/other voters.

Don’t worry about California. All the signs are here for a big—I mean big Democratic year from the top of the ticket to local races. Democratic registration is up, compared with Republican registration, in every one of California’s 80 Assembly Districts—and that’s the trend since the February 5, 2008 presidential primary. Not only is Democratic registration up, Democrats are voting and turning out at the polls. And on top of that, voters who are in neither party, agree with Democratic positions and candidates in both Field’s polling and that of the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), which released their own survey earlier this month.

Both Field and the PPIC polls buttress each other in many ways.

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll has just released its survey taken of likely voters in the June 3, 2008 election showing that three-quarters of these voters have head of the ballot propositions and that Proposition 98 is failing by 10 points, 43% to 33%, while rival measure Proposition 99 is favored by 48% to 30%.

These findings are in accord with the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) survey of voters released last week which showed Prop 98 failing by an even wider margin, 30% to 48% and Prop 99 holding a slim 8 point lead, 44% to 36%.

Why Proposition 98—Heavily Bankrolled by Landlords and Opposed in Over 64 Newspaper Editorials—is Losing Badly

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Peter Schrag

Among the many Democrats applauding the California Supreme Court's May 15 decision striking down the state's barriers to same-sex marriage, there must have been more than a little anxiety. Among conservatives condemning it, there had to be just a bit of unarticulated joy.

Both for the same obvious reason: the possibility, as after a similar decision in Massachusetts in 2004, that it would re-energize religious-right support for a dispirited Republican Party that has been at the short end of virtually every major national issue in recent years. The decision, one Democrat said, would have been better-timed in 2009.

Ironically, it also loads some GOP hopes on the backs of Latino voters, many of whom tend to be conservative on social issues such as abortion and gay rights. The paradox can't be lost on the most vehement of the immigration restrictionists.

In addition, of course, there's the near certainty that the "California Marriage Protection Act," an initiative that would probably overturn the court's decision, will be on the November ballot.

Nonetheless, 2008 may not be 2004, even on the issue of gay marriage.