[courtesy of California Progress Report]

At every point where there is a severe shortfall between needed revenues and something close to current revenues, a budget deadlock ensues with the following characteristics.

Democratic legislators and their interest group allies seek to pressure Republican lawmakers into providing the votes necessary for more taxes. This is a difficult task given that Republicans define themselves as a party as the “no tax” group. To overcome this fact, interest groups spend significant money trying to effect public opinion so that it will, in turn, effect Republican attitudes.

So efforts are made to mobilize the constituencies supportive of state spending in Republican seats. Teachers in Republican districts;. Consumers of IHSS; Local public safety organizations, and so on. These district elites, once mobilized, should constitute a counter pressure to the ideological anti-tax group, ultimately making it easier to raise taxes than to cut spending further.

These district efforts to organize and mobilize take time – hence the relative inactivity in Sacramento. Democrats stall until the pressure builds.

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

Bad news for California’s budget came in from the precincts today. The latest PPIC survey indicates that (1) voters don’t want to cut education’s budget; and (2) don’t want to raise taxes to avoid those cuts. Years of budget flim-flam – led by Governor flim-flam – have convinced voters we can simply ‘reorder’ priorities and get by.

I suppose we shouldn’t be too hard on the Governor. After all, he floated into office because of Gray Davis’ failure to fix budget problems earlier in this decade. Naturally he’ll be trying to avoid a similar fate by placing the blame on the Legislature.

For weeks now the Governor has been making appearances touting his rebaked version of Pete Wilson’s “solution” to budget woes (cut out the Legislature). But the day of real reckoning approaches.

Democrats, who have called for revenue increases, can raise about $2.5 billion in ‘fee increases’ that don’t require GOP backing because they are majority vote bills. Then we can lease or sell the lottery, the capitol, and anything else to raise money – and still have a multi-billion dollar problem.

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

As long as Governor Schwarzenegger keeps his promise not to seek higher taxes to fix California’s budget deficit, he will have the support of Republican lawmakers.

As long as Republican lawmakers support the Governor’s budget program, the Democrats will be unable to gain media traction for any plan to mix in tax hikes with budget cuts.

The press corps will label any plan that lacks bipartisan support, “petty, partisan politics” (to paraphrase Pat Brown).

This ‘take’ by the press corps means it will be unlikely that public opinion can be mobilized against a “cuts only” solution to the budget. Republicans don’t care about public opinion in any case – just the opinion of the majority that dominates the primary elections in their district. But if there ever was a chance, the “free” media outlets have ended it.

To offset the blame that will follow from deep cuts in public education, freed felons and the like, the Governor has hit the stump with a proposed ‘reform’ package that is really warmed over ‘Wilsonism’ - a higher reserve plus seizing from the Legislature the authority to suspend state laws if cash looks tight.

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

Led by Speaker Fabian Núñez Assembly lawmakers today approved nearly $1 billion in immediate emergency budget cuts and other funding solutions to ease the state's budget deficit. The Assembly passed six bills this morning that freeze funds to schools, cut payments to doctors who care for the poor, and keeps the state from spending hundreds of millions of dollars in unspent funds on a wide range of projects for the rest of the year. A bill that would have closed a tax loophole for the owners of yachts, RVs and private planes was defeated because Republican lawmakers refused to vote for it.  Speaker Fabian Núñez and Assembly Budget Committee chairman John Laird says the cuts will ensure the state doesn't run out of cash this summer. However, both men said the ongoing budget crisis in 2008/09 will be more difficult to solve and will require a balance between spending cuts and new revenues.

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

Insurance Commissioner Poizner has adroitly chosen Prop 93 – the proposed modification in California’s “term limit” restriction – as his bridge to the conservative wing of the Republican Party. By supplying money to the ‘no’ side, Poizner pleases conservatives without hurting himself with voters (who could care less about term limits).

He should now think seriously about opposing the Schwarzenegger redistricting proposal – it would remove redistricting from the Legislative process and give it to a good government commission.

Conservative lawmakers would then not need a Republican Governor to protect them in the process, or whose veto would send the decision to a Republican Court.

In 1989, conservative Republican lawmakers actively recruited moderate Pete Wilson to leave the U.S. Senate and to run for Governor. They didn’t like Wilson’s ideology, but they needed to win because of the 1991 redistricting.

The plan worked. Wilson was elected. He opposed all plans proposed by the Democrats. He submitted a plan himself to the Court, but the Court finally drew its own plan – and the Republicans took over the State Assembly three years later.

by Julia Rosen [courtesy of Working Californians blogs]

Right now the revenue projections for the state are not very good. They are showing about a $10 billion deficit. That does not mean that it is time for the governor to declare a "fiscal crisis" under Prop. 58, as the Republicans are calling for. SacBee:

Top Republican lawmakers on Tuesday called on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to declare a "fiscal crisis" to deal with California's looming budget problem, but administration officials said such a move would be premature.

Sen. Bob Dutton, a Republican from Rancho Cucamonga who refused to vote for the current budget because it spent too much, said the governor should use a special authority voters assigned him during the last budget crisis to tackle a budget deficit forecast to be nearly $10 billion.

Under Proposition 58 passed in 2004, the governor could declare a fiscal emergency if he determines revenue is "substantially below" what was anticipated in the budget and summon the Legislature into special session.

This smacks of the Republicans wanting to push through a bunch of cuts, rather than deal with the deficit in a strategic and long-term way. This is time for a thoughtful substantive discussion, not rash decisions. Arnold is right to resist this call. There is time and the state needs more data before it moves forward.

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

Well, they insisted on it. Wanting to look “tougher” on crime than the Democrats, the Republicans insisted on a provision that keeps paroled and other sex offenders from taking up residence within 2000 feet of a school or public park.

That’s as the crow flies.

The real world result of this provision is that sex offenders can’t find a place to live in most large California cities.

The law requires sex offenders (and other felons) to be paroled back into the Counties where they committed the offense that put them in prison. For decades this has meant that most ex-cons wind up in our large urban areas – leaving small towns relatively free of their company.

No more!

The 2000 or so paroled sex offenders released in San Francisco now have the option of camping out on Ocean Beach or leaving the County. There are NO facilities within the County limits that meet the 2000 foot restriction. Other jurisdictions will have the same problem.

The parolees have the choice of moving on or moving back to prison. The state has no relocation responsibilities.