by BruinKid [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

So one of the arguments I've been seeing against gay marriage is that the 2000 ballot initiative Prop. 22 showed what the "will of the people" is.  Except... a closer look at what happened back then makes it more ambiguous as to what will actually happen this November.

First, yes, Prop. 22 passed, 61.4%-38.6%.  But it wasn't on the ballot in November 2000, but rather in March 2000, in the primary election.  Now, here's the thing.  By then, Al Gore had already clinched the nomination against Bill Bradley, so there wasn't really an impetus for Democrats to go vote (much like you're seeing the GOP say now for McCain).  Meanwhile, the race between Bush and McCain was still going on, though winding down.

by Maurice Doubleday [courtesy of Blog for America]

Of all the arrows aimed at Rudy's moderate side during the Republican primary I wonder why no one asked him why he endorsed Mario Cuomo over George Pataki in the 94 NY gubernatorial race?

Too late in the game. But it would it have been fun to watch him stammer thru that!!!

by DFA Staff [courtesy of Blog for America]

Results are in from the Republican primary in Florida.

John McCain appears to have just barely edged out Mitt Romney in the all-important Florida GOP primary, according to projections from CNN and the Associated Press.

Right now, with just over half reporting, McCain has 36%, Romney has 31% and Rudy is bringing up third with 15%.

The scuttlebutt in GOP circles is that the McCain and Romney camps are both aggressively lobbying Rudy for his endorsement, in the expectation that Rudy will drop out soon, perhaps even tonight.

Rumors are circulating that Rudy will drop out before tomorrow night's Republican debate and endorse Sen. McCain. Thoughts?

-Ilya

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

In the California Field Poll released today, leading Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani has dropped 10 points to 25% of the likely primary voters, down from 35% in Field's August survey.

There has not been any statistically significant change in the last two months for the pack following him, with Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Fred Thompson in the 12 to 13% range. Undecided voters have ticked up in the Republican primary for President with 22% saying they haven't made up their minds compared with 20% in August and 15% in March. There also is a slight increase overall in the numbers of Republican voters in the state supporting the "second tier" candidates, although none are above 4%.

Giuliani appears to have a slight lead over Romney in the self identified "strongly conservative" Republicans who are expected to make up roughly half of those who will vote and has much of his lead from moderately conservative or liberal Republican voters who make up the other half--where he gets 26% to Romney's 7% and McCain's 15%.

by David Dayen [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

John Doolittle is in it to win it.

Despite having multiple primary challengers, plus the recent leak of a Republican poll showing him losing to his 2006 Democratic opponent, scandal-tarred Congressman John Doolittle (R-CA) has made it clear he's not backing down from his 2008 re-election fight.

"I will not step aside," Doolittle told reporters in a conference call today. "I am running again. Period."

This is terrible news.  I mean, if he runs in a Republican primary with so many other contenders, surely he can pull the 30-35% needed to win.  And then he'll face our challenger Charlie Brown in a rematch of last year, when he carried a whopping 49% of the vote!  I mean, how can we defeat an incumbent whose being harrassed by Bush's Justice Department and has a bunch of battle-tested staffers and aides who've stared down the glare of a federal grand jury?  This is terrible!!

Please don't throw me in the briar patch...

by David Dayen [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Maybe this is the reason that every registered Republican is jumping into the Republican primary for John Doolittle's seat:

GOP Rep. John Doolittle's two top aides have been subpoenaed to testify before a federal grand jury investigating ties between Doolittle, his wife and jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
The grand jury subpoenas from the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia were issued to Chief of Staff Ron Rogers and Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Blankenburg. They were announced on the House floor as Congress returned from its August recess Tuesday after the aides informed the House speaker about the subpoenas, as required under House rules.

Doolittle, R-Calif., said in a statement that the aides would testify before the grand jury this week "with hopes of putting the matter to an end."

Yes, that's exactly what will happen.  The matter will end, maybe with somebody being brought to jail and booked, but it certainly will end.  Doolittle is still trying to blame this on his wife's payments from Abramoff in exchange for maybe/maybe-not "work," but of course there are dozens of connections between Doolittle himself and Abramoff.  It's unlikely that this is just about Mrs. Doolittle (who may have to spend some time in the slammer IN ADDITION to her husband).

by Lucas O'Connor [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Rudy Giuliani made a swing through Southern California this week to scoop up money and speak to supporters in Del Mar Wednesday evening.  While trying to overcome some concerns from Republican primary voters that he's not conservative enough, he said that he "can be competitive in every single state," that he can take California.

A bold statement for a candidate who supports the continued Occupation of Iraq and rarely has criticism for President Bush.  But California Democrats have been put on notice: Rudy Giuliani plans to take California.