[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

Just look at the headline and first paragraph of a KPIX-TV commissioned poll through SurveyUSA:

“California State Senate District 3: Carole Migden Defeated 2:1 in Primary Challenge -- In a Democratic Primary today in California's 3rd State Senate District, 18 days until votes are counted, incumbent Senator Carole Migden is defeated in her bid to keep her party's nomination… Mark Leno, assemblyman from California's 13th assembly district, gets 42% of the vote; Joe Nation, former assemblyman from CA's 6th district, gets 22%; Migden finishes effectively tied with Nation, at 21%. Leno leads in almost every demographic sub-population.”

It doesn’t get any better for Migden or Nation throughout this survey—in favorable-unfavorable ratings and the results by various subgroups to the extent the poll is accurate as to the smaller samples of those in the subgroups. Overall, this survey of 1000 voters out of which 516 were determined to have already voted or to be likely voters, has a margin of error of 3.2% as to the favorable/unfavorable ratings and 4.4% as to who voters would vote for. The poll is fresh—from last Tuesday May 13 to Wednesday May 14. It was released Thursday.