Teach Your Parents Well: California Public Opinion and the Same Sex Marriage Proposition

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

It appears from reports of the numbers of signatures collected that there will be a ballot initiative coincident with the presidential election in November to place in the Califonria Constitution a ban on same sex marriages and to overrule the California Supreme Court decision that has made front page nationwide news in the last week. If the numbers of comments—over 3100 as of last count—made to the Los Angeles Times article, “Californians narrowly reject gay marriage: Voters also back a proposed constitutional amendment to ban same-sex unions, a new Times/KTLA survey shows” is any indication, this will be a much talked about issue. There already are pledges by those on both sides of the electoral fight that will take place on a ballot initiative to spend multiple millions of dollars on a major effort.

The Los Angeles Times/KTLA poll is the first of what will be many to come on how Californians think about this issue—and by the time the election rolls around, we will have been polled, spun, and motivated to vote one way or the other on this issue. The California Field Poll has two questions on this issue and will be releasing findings later this month.

This is going to be a teachable moment for Californians. Based on extensive polling in the past by Field, younger voters are supportive of same sex marriage—or they don’t care about it—and they certainly do not favor discrimination on this issue. The last extensive polling done by Field—and they have been polling on this for 24 years shows an unmistakable trend of tolerance by California voters, young and old, to gay couples and a huge generational shift with younger voters favoring legalization of same sex marriage. In fact, the title of their latest report on this last year is titled: “While individual attitude changes are partly responsible for the rise in support for same-sex marriage in California over the past 20 years, most of the change derives from generational replacement.”

A year ago on these pages I wrote a lengthier article: “California Field Poll Shows It's Just a Matter of Time Before We Have Same Sex Marriage in State”. Here is an excerpt”

"The California Field Poll released a report earlier today based on polling they have conducted over a 22 year period--from 1985 through 2006 that shows that there is a growing support of Californians for same sex marriage. While the latest survey, conducted by Field in February of 2006, shows 43% in favor and 50% opposed, the shift in support has been dramatic over the years and there are increases of support amongst all age groups. Most significantly, a majority of those born after 1970 now support same sex marriage.

"The results also show a more favorable change in attitudes over time and amongst all sorts of population groups towards homosexual relations between consenting adults since the respondents were age 18.
The combination of majority support for gay marriage amongst the young (37 years or younger based on the date of birth used) and shifts within the older population that are more favorable, but still below a majority, is strong evidence that, sooner or later, legislatively, through the courts, or the ballot box, the legal status of marriage will be extended to same sex couples.