Texatics: Texas Debate and Tragedy in Dallas

by Brian Leubitz [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Before I get to the debate, I'd like to send my condolences to the family of the motorcycle officer killed in a traffic accident en route to a campaign event in Dallas.

The debate itself was quite the lovefest that we saw here in California at the Kodak theater. (You can watch the debate at cnn.com or through the numerous clips the two campaigns have posted on youtube.) There were a few jabs in there ("that's change you can xerox"), but I don't think anything was landed. The crowd booed the Xerox jab, and Clinton really didn't come off too well.

Where Clinton did come off well was when she emphasized party unity and the fact that she could, in fact, lose the race. She does humble really well, and after an outright cocky presidency for the last seven+ years, perhaps Americans are craving a bit of humbleness in their next leader.

The Texas polls are now within the margin of error.  An ABCNews poll released yesterday has a Clinton 48-47 lead, and Ralph Brodie at IVR polls has Clinton at 50-45 using a new (untested) turnout model. Doing the Texas two-step will require turnout at both the election and the precinct caucuses. Delegate count will likely be very, very close due to the proportionality and that most of the state Senate districts are even delegates. Obama might be able to pick up some delegates in the delegate rich districts of Austin, Dallas, and Houston, but many of the Latino districts in South Texas are 4-delegates. And these 4 delegate districts require the 62% threshold to break the tie. It's tough to imagine many of those districts doing anything but 2-2.

More over the flip
Yesterday I was contacted by the Obama campaign to volunteer in Texas. I'll probably do some work on the campaign, but, of course, I'll do my best to cover any events in the Austin area for both Clinton and Obama.  I must say, I'm pretty excited to head to Texas for the first election that I can remember that had an effect on the presidency.