Three-way Dem Primary for California15th Assembly District Seat--Evidence It is Turning Blue

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Karen Cohen

A totally blue Bay Area delegation in the California Assembly? Changing demographics give the Democratic Party a good chance of capturing the 15th Assembly District (A.D.) seat this November for the first time in a quarter of a century, turning the Bay Area Assembly delegation completely Democratic and bringing the Assembly closer to a veto-proof Democratic majority.

After a decade without competition for the 15th A.D. seat in the Democrat primary, six people announced their candidacies last year and three remain in the race. Joan Buchanan of Alamo and Steve Filson and Steve Thomas of Danville will be on the June 3 ballot. None of them are unknowns.

The 15th A.D. includes parts of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin and Sacramento counties. While the majority of voters are in Contra Costa, the district extends to include portions of the Sacramento Delta communities of Stockton, Galt and Elk Grove, as well as Livermore and a part of Pleasanton. The electorate is 38.8 percent Republican, 38.7 percent Democratic and 18.8 percent Decline To State, according January figures from the office of the Secretary of State. The numbers represent a significant shift from 2006, when 42.5 percent of voters registered Republican, 39.5 percent were Democratic and 18.4 percent were Decline To State.

Collaboration with other Democratic campaigns would help the nominee in November. McNerney supporters in the part of the 11th Congressional District that overlaps A.D. 15, for example, could give the Assembly nominee a boost. The Buchanan campaign is not strategizing for November at this time, but both Filson and Thomas said they would piggyback with McNerney’s reelection campaign if asked to. “Volunteers who crossed district lines to help elect McNerney are interested in helping in the 15th Assembly District,” Filson said. Thomas said he would also be willing to work together with the Democratic presidential campaign, no matter who gets the nomination.

The state Democratic Party will endorse one of the three candidates if he or she gets enough support in a vote or votes taken among designated members of Democratic clubs and committees. An endorsement usually means a notation on the party’s official campaign pieces.

Healthcare, traffic and the state budget are among the issues generating interest in the district and they are top priorities of the candidates. The Delta is also a concern, especially for communities near it. All of the candidates favor SB 840, Sen. Sheila Kuehl’s single-payer, universal healthcare plan; extension of BART; improvements at several notorious interchanges; and restoration of the Delta for the good of the entire state.