Too Early to Handicap the Race for Speaker

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

As soon as Proposition 93 went down to defeat, pundits began handicapping the race to succeed Speaker Nunez. Never mind that many of these same "experts" assured us only months ago that Hillary Clinton would sail to the Democratic nomination and that John McCain's campaign was on life support. All too often, pundits simply regurgitate the conventional wisdom of the moment, leaving little room for thoughtful analysis or even the pretense of humility. With all this said, I feel compelled to throw in my two cents -- not so much to handicap the race for Speaker, but to highlight some of the dynamics that may shape the race itself. 

Nearly all the pundits sizing up this race have overlooked the role "outsiders" may play in selecting the next Speaker. After all, Labor, spearheaded by the late Miguel Contreras, played a huge role in securing the job for Fabian Nunez. And longstanding Democratic constituencies, including teachers, prison guards, and others, are starting to weigh in. AFSCME recently announced its intention to interview Speaker candidates. More interesting still are actions taken by Maria Elena Durazo, wife and successor to the late Miguel Contreras, signaling her intention to get involved. In recent meetings with candidates, she has made it clear that she expects Labor to have a seat at the table in selecting the new Speaker.

It is also clear that unions in the south would prefer a Speaker from their region, which brings me to my second point. Historically, the Assembly and Senate have balanced the interests of the state by selecting house leaders from opposite ends of California. For those who give short shrift to this unwritten rule, consider this -- one of the major issues likely to be addressed by the next Speaker concerns water. With the selection of Pro Tem Steinberg, you can bet that representatives from the south will rally behind one of their own.

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Image courtesy California State Capitol Museum.