Trends Point to Passage of California Tribal Gaming, But Defeat of Other Ballot Propositions Including Term Limit Changes

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

While the percentages may very well changes—and in some cases by a several points—it appears that California voters have said no to all ballot propositions except for approval of Propositions 94 to 97 which will allow an expansion of slot machines at tribal casinos.

There are some surprises here in the numbers so far—particularly Prop 93 on term limits which is doing a lot better than the polls indicated it would. With 62 % of the vote counted it is garnering losing only 53% to 47%. And Prop 91 on transportation funds was getting more votes than Prop 92 on Community College fees and funding—despite the fact that the proponents of Prop 91 wrote an argument urging a no vote as it was no longer necessary. I would have thought it would have gone down in flames with no more than a quarter of the vote—I guess many voters do not even glance at the ballot arguments and just look at the title and summary on the ballot or screen itself while voting.

So, here are the results:

Prop 91 Transportation funds is losing 42.7% to 57.3%

Prop 92 Community Colleges is losing 41% to 59%.

Prop 93 Term limits is losing 46.9% to 53.1%

Props 94 to 97 Indian gaming compacts are all passing by about 56% to 44%.

The votes that have been tabulated so far are not evenly from different parts of the state—some counties have fully reported their numbers from the day of the election, while others have many more to count. And there are hundreds of thousands of vote by mail ballots that were turned in during the last two days that remain to be processed and counted along with some provisional ballots where voters did not appear on the rolls or there were other problems that will be resolved in favor of counting their vote.

Prop 93 is the closest, but looking at the map of the state, it is only ahead in counties in the San Francisco Bay Area and in some smaller counties. It is behind in Los Angeles County 52% to 48%, and close in San Diego by 51% to 49%, but goes down by a large 58% to 42% margin in Orange County. These are the largest counties in the state and unless these reverse themselves, I don’t see how it makes up the 6 point deficit it now has.

With a strong cup of coffee in the morning, we’ll take another look at these.