Vote by Mail Has Big Implications for California Presidential Primary According to Field Poll

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The February 5, 2008 Presidential Primary Election could see a majority of those voting doing so by mail rather than showing up at polling places on election day. The Field Poll has just released an extensive survey of over 4,500 Californians, comparing those who have signed up to receive permanent mail ballots with those who have not.

There are enormous implications here as to how campaigns will--or should--be waged, the demographics of those who are permanent VBM (Vote By Mail) registrants, challenges for the Democratic Party of this state to get the vote out because many more Republicans have taken advantage of permanent VBM than Democrats and the state's non-partisan/others who tend to lean Democratic.

This will change not only how we watch the unfolding election returns on election night and into the next day, but it will affect the timing of mail and media with voters having about four weeks to cast their ballots by mail (or dropping them off at their polling place on election day), how voters might be affected by "bounces" from Iowa and the early primaries, and probably in unforeseen ways.

Field's numbers include some startling facts as to permanent VBM voters compared with the state's overall electorate. They are skewed towards:

• A much higher percentage in the nine county San Francisco Bay Area and much lower percentage of those in Los Angeles County

• More older voters and less younger ones

• Significantly higher percentages of whites than Hispanics

• More homeowners and less renters

• More Republicans than their percentage of registration and less Democrats and decline-to state and other party voters.

• More strongly conservative Republicans and strongly liberal Democrats than their parties as a whole