What To Look For Tonight

by David Dayen [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Well, primary day is here.  If you're reading this and have an interest in California politics, GO VOTE if you haven't already.  Then, here's a handy list of what to expect tonight and what signs to look for that would portend positive results for Democrats in November:

? What will turnout be like?: In the key districts where we have the opportunity to flip seats, I'm going to be looking at how energized the Democratic electorate is.  Most of the Republican incumbents are running unopposed or with token competition, so it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.  But if Congressional challengers like Bill Durston or Russ Warner or Charlie Brown or Debbie Cook can run up a big percentage of registered voters today, it'll show their strength among their base of supporters.  In addition, check the turnout in AD-80, AD-78, AD-10, AD-15, and SD-19.  Those races have no incumbent running on either side, and all are currently in Republican hands.  If more Democrats turn out, it's a pretty good sign.

? The write-in and the recall: I don't think anyone expects the recall of Jeff Denham to succeed, but given that there's been virtually no spending on the "Yes" side since Don Perata short-circuited the process and "Yacht Dog" Democrats Cathleen Gagliani and Nicole Parra rushed to Denham's side, it'll be interesting to see just how much support the recall gets in this plurality-Democratic district.  As for SD-15, Dennis Morris has made a furious rush to gather enough support to get the roughly 3,600 write-in votes needed to reach the November ballot.  And we know that Abel Maldonado cross-filed with his own write-in campaign, so his dear Democratic mother had a chance to vote for him.  Riiiight.  If you're in SD-15, PLEASE VOTE FOR DENNIS MORRIS.

? PDA's strength: There are a lot of PDA (Progressive Democrats of America)-endorsed candidates throughout the state, but there's little success expected from them.  This needs to be a moment where the activist fervor needs to be channeled into electoral victory.  I think the test case is CA-24, where Mary Pallant, a founding member of the LA chapter of PDA, is running for Congress against 2 rivals in the primary.  Jill Martinez was the 2006 nominee and has some name recognition, but people in the Ventura County-area district I talked to cannot recall one mailer or robocall or piece of material sent by Martinez all year.  Pallant has been doing a lot of voter contact, and in a low-turnout primary, she should be able to win the nomination if PDA really has any electoral muscle whatsoever.  We'll see.

? The primary is the general: There are plenty of seats in the legislature where this is the case.  Obviously, Calitics has been focused on SD-03 in San Francisco, SD-23 in Santa Monica and points north, AD-40 in the San Fernando Valley, and AD-27 in the Santa Cruz region.  But there are actually a dozen or so more as well, and many have gotten fairly nasty, some to general-election levels of nastiness.  The Senate race between Rod Wright and Mervyn Dymally is one big example.  Look at this ad:

? The kahuna primaries: For Congress, there's the race in CA-04 between Tom McClintock and Doug Ose, which actually made The New York Times.  What I'm hearing is that, despite Ose's efforts to buy the seat, McClintock's going to take this.  There is also the AD-80 race with Greg Pettis, Manuel Perez, Rick Gonzales and Richard Gutierrez, which will be competitive between Perez and Pettis.  And the LA County Board of Supervisors race between Bernard Parks and Mark Ridley-Thomas (I saw several Parks commercials last night).  For many of these primaries, there isn't any polling and it's hard to know just where things will go.

We'll have all of this for you tonight, so come on back.