Why the Democratic Presidential Nominee Will Win California Big over McCain: The Environment as Just One Example

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

Much puffing has been made about how the California Republican Party and the party of Arnold Schwarzenegger will mount a successful campaign in this state to award our Electoral College votes to the apparent nominee, John McCain. This, despite the fact that the hapless California Republican Party is deeply mired in debt—near bankruptcy—is facing criticism from major donors for being inept and out of step with California voters, and has failed to elect Republicans to most statewide and legislative offices for years.

However, after the euphoria dies down and Californians look at the record of McCain versus either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama on the War in Iraq, the environment, or any one of a number of issues, they will see that the choice is clear.

The demographic and political facts are already in place for a massive Democratic victory in California in November. Democrats have widened their registration lead in California to a 10 point advantage. A record number of Democrats, some newly registered, and independents (Decline-To-State) voters participated in our primary two weeks ago. Republican registration is at its lowest level in years.

As of this morning, the California Secretary of State’s site shows that over 4.5 million voted in the Democratic primary versus 2.7 million in the Republican primary—that’s an advantage that may grow to 2 million voters by the time all the ballots are counted. 63% of the primary vote was in the Democratic primary versus 37% on the Republican side. Both Clinton and Obama received about twice as many votes as McCain. California’s Young Democrats are already at work for the June primary and will be out in droves. The numbers of new and under age 29 voters—the strongest group for Democrats—shot up from 9% of the electorate to 16%,
almost doubling.

California has voted reliably for the Democratic nominee since 1992. Why else did the Republican Party try to change the rules on the Electoral College in the middle of the game for the November contest with a ballot initiative that would have been on that same ballot? They know they are going to lose big time in the Golden State.

But just take a look at the record on the environment—an issue near and dear to California voters. The League of Conservation voters gives Barack Obama a lifetime score of 96% and Hillary Clinton a 90% rating. John McCain limps in with a 26% lifetime rating.