Why Schwarzenegger's Redistricting Plan Won't Work: It Defies Political Population Polarization Trends

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

Sunday's New York Times Magazine had an amazing article titled, "Vote Like Thy Neighbor," which pinpoints exactly why the Governor and his band of merry do-gooders are wrong in thinking redistricting reform will foster political competition.

"You are less likely to live near someone whose politics differ from your own," the writers, William Galson and Pietro Nivola, editors of "Red and Blue Nation," discovered. "When counties become more homogeneous, it becomes harder to use redistricting to create more competitive Congressional districts."

The authors point out that in 1976, only 27 percent of voters lived in "landslide" counties where one candidate prevailed by 20 points or more. By 2004, 48 percent of voters lived in such counties.

The article goes on to say that "once a tipping point is reached, majorities tend to become supermajorities." That's exactly what's happened in the Bay Area, where Republicans are an endangered species. Nearly all of the legislative districts in the Bay Area have shifted to Democrats; the holdout being the 15th Assembly district held by Assemblymember Guy Houston that may well go Democratic this Fall.

So when Arnold Schwarzengger and the good government groups bemoan the lack of competitive elections in November, it's not because of the way political boundaries are drawn. It's because California's population -- like much of the nation's -- has shifted. There are blue areas. There are red areas. And there's not much inbetween. Contorting political boundaries to defy demographic reality -- which is what the Schwarzenegger will do -- will deprive Californians of representatives that think like they do.