Will Bill Durston Be Able to Beat Dan Lungren in California CD 3?

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

Parallels with McNerney win over Pombo Seen, but will it be enough?

By Randy Bayne
The Bayne of Blog's California Notes

Democrats in the 3rd Congressional District pinned their hopes on an emergency room physician in 2006 and lost. This year they are once again hoping that Dr. Bill Durston can win this one time Republican haven, and with news of the shrinking lead in Republican registration numbers in the district, many are taking that optimism to a new level.

Their optimism began with what they saw as a similarity between the history of Jerry McNerney's campaign in the 11th CD, and Durston's campaign in the 3rd. The numbers are similar, and the progress identical. Both lost their first time out, registration numbers became more favorable, and McNerney won his second try. is it possible, they wonder, for Durston to win this go round?
Republican voter registration in California is on the decline, but nowhere is the effect more pronounced than in the Sacramento region's 3rd Congressional District.

Incumbent Rep. Dan Lungren, R-Gold River, now has the slimmest registration edge of any Republican-held congressional district in the state.
The optimism is not completely unfounded. Durston, has learned valuable lessons from his first run. Though initially reluctant to face the rigors of another campaign, he has come out much stronger, grown his base of support, and become a much better fundraiser. Durston has grown as a candidate.